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The 2013 round of projections included the following household projection variants:

Three variants of trend-based projection (Central, High, Low) that used different migration assumptions and which were used to inform the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) and Further Alterations to the London Plan (FALP).
Development-linked projections using development trajectories derived from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment.

Users of the capped household size projections should be aware that at this time no consistent set of household projections exist. The methodology employed to produce these population projections effectively builds in the assumption that there will be a deviation away from the DCLG household formation rates that underpin the GLA’s household model. Without valid household formation rates it is not possible to produce detailed household projections.

The household model used for this round take household formation rates from DCLG’s 2011-based household projections. These projections only extend to 2021. The GLA has extrapolated these rates forward to 2041.

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gla-hh-2013rnd-trend-high-borough.xlsxxls6.6 MB

Trend-based household projections to 2041 for London boroughs - high variant. These are consistent with the trend-based high variant population projections in which changes to domestic migration flows are considered to be structural and recent patterns persist regardless of an improving economic outlook.

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gla-hh-2013rnd-trend-central-borough.xlsxxls6.5 MB

Trend-based household projections to 2041 for London boroughs - central variant. These are consistent with the trend-based central variant population projections in which assume recent migration patterns are partially transient and partially structural. Beyond 2018, domestic outflow propensities increase by 5% and inflows by 3% when compared to the high variant.

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gla-hh-2013rnd-trend-low-borough.xlsxxls6.6 MB

Trend-based household projections to 2041 for London boroughs - low variant. These are consistent with the trend-based low variant population projections in which changes to domestic migration patterns are assumed to be transient and return to pre-crisis trends beyond 2018. Domestic outflow propensities increase by 10% and inflows decrease by 6%.

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gla-hh-2013rnd-shlaa-borough.xlsxxls6.5 MB

Household projections for London boroughs using Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) data.

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