2014 round population projections

Four variants of local authority level population projections and one ward-level projection are available:

• Trend-based projections based on short-term (five year) trends in migration

• Trend-based projections based on long-term (twelve year) trends in migration

• Housing-linked projections incorporating data from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA), short term migration trends and using the Capped Household Size projection model

• Housing-linked projections incorporating data from the 2013 SHLAA, long-term migration trends and using the DCLG-linked projection model

• Ward projections consistent with the SHLAA Capped Household Size model.  A visualisation of these projections can be viewed here.

A note outlining the key differences between the various projection methodologies can be found here.

The GLA's 2014 round of projections is its first to fully incorporate the results of the 2011 Census, with underlying migration data updated using commissioned origin-destination tables.

Notes: • The short-term migration scenario bases the volume of migration flows on estimates for the period mid-2009 to mid-2013. Age and sex characteristics for domestic flows are based on origin-destination data from the 2011 Census. These projections are intended to be used where accuracy in the near term is important.

• The long-term migration scenario bases the volume of migration flows on estimates for the period mid-2001 to mid-2013. Age and sex characteristics of domestic flows are based on a combination of origin-destination data from both 2001 and 2011 Censuses. These projections are intended to be used for longer-term strategic planning purposes.

Household projections consistent with these projections are available here.

The custom-age population tool page is here.

*updated 14/04/2015 to correct minor errors in the 2012 and 2013 birth and death inputs