The base scenario projects Helsinki’s CO2 emissions in 2030. This scenario was calculated by using Helsinki’s historical emission growth rate and taking into account the impact of those technological improvements and regulatory changes that are known to be implemented (i.e. implementation is already started or a commitment for implementation is in place or decision of regulatory change has already been made). These improvements are referred to as base levers and consist of e.g. rail traffic improvements already under construction and the impact of new building regulations and the EU Eco-design directive. The base scenario alone implies a decline of 13 % or 0,4 Mt in annual CO2 emissions from the current level of 3,0 Mt in 2010 to 2,6 Mt in 2030.
The optimized scenario projects Helsinki’s CO2 emissions in 2030 when additional levers that reduce emissions even further are also implemented (extra levers). Examples of these include new innovative solutions and implementation concepts such as a demand response system for the electricity distribution grid and a very high level of electric vehicle usage by 2030. This scenario implies full implementation of concepts introduced in this study. The optimized scenario results in a further 1,4 Mt reduction in annual CO2 emissions compared to 2010, implying a total decline of 61 % from the current level of 3,0 Mt in 2010 to an optimized level of 1,2 Mt in 2030.
